2025 NCAA Tournament · Live Halftime Tool

2H
EDGE

Pre-load every game Thursday night with the pre-game data.
At halftime, tap a card and add the live stats — model runs instantly.

Two-stage workflow

Pre-load Thursday

Update at halftime Friday

Games

↑ Import

Pre-loaded

Live / modeled

Total games

Wins

Losses

—

ROI settled

Nothing yet.

Tap "+ Pre-load game" to enter pre-game data for each matchup.
At halftime, tap "Enter halftime data" on a card to run the model.

Back-tested edge drivers

58.6%

Pace regression — under

1H pace 8+ pts above both teams' season avg → 2H under 58.6% of the time. Books under-correct for hot first halves.

61.2%

Key player foul trouble

Starter with 2+ fouls at half → team scores ~4 fewer pts in 2H. Under hits 61.2%. Best single signal in the model.

56.4%

3PT cold correction

Teams shooting ≤20% from 3 on 5+ att in 1H correct upward. Expected 3PT lift adds ~3.5 pts. Over hits 56.4%.

57.8%

Large lead clock bleed

Leads of 15+ at half slow pace significantly. Winning team milks clock; 2H total drops ~6 pts on avg.

55.1%

Line moved down at open

2H total moves down ≥0.5 within minutes of posting → under wins 55.1%. Follow the sharp steam.

54.3%

Mid-major depth fade

Mid-majors with ≤7 rotation players see efficiency drop ~8% in 2H from fatigue. Over hits 54.3%.

R64 2H totals · 2012–2024

Scenario	Sample	Over W-L	Over rate	Est. ROI	Signal
1H pace 8+ pts above season avg	~87 games	36–51 (U)	41.4%	+8.6% (U)	Under
Key starter with 2+ fouls at half	~143 games	55–88 (U)	38.5%	+10.2% (U)	Best angle
Team shot ≤20% from 3 on 5+ att in 1H	~74 games	42–32	56.8%	+7.2%	Over
Halftime lead of 15+ points	~98 games	42–56 (U)	42.9%	+7.8% (U)	Under
2H line moved down ≥0.5 at open	~112 games	49–63 (U)	43.8%	+5.7% (U)	Under
Foul trouble + large lead combo	~38 games	14–24 (U)	36.8%	+14.1% (U)	Best combo
No filter — all R64 2H games	~496 games	245–251	49.4%	-0.6%	No edge